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Fantasy Stock Watch (7/16/2008)

Dave Zoll, Co-Contributor

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Fantasy draft season is upon us again and if you plan on taking down the championship this year, you’ll need to keep up with the current developments around the league.  Not all are as crucial as Manning's surgery, but most will still affect the outcome of your league.

Bull Market

Kevin Jones(RB-CHI): It’s way too early to determine how this acquisition will affect the Bears offense during the 2008 season, but one thing that’s crystal clear is that Jones will be the most talented RB on Chicago’s roster going into preseason. This signing improves Jones’ stock from a potential late-round flyer to a solid mid-round value.

Tom Brady(QB-NE)/Tony Romo(QB-DAL)/Drew Brees(QB-NO): With the recent news of Manning’s “minor” knee surgery, there is an absolute premium on tier 1 fantasy QB’s.  If you thought a lot of people were drafting Brady in the first round before, you haven’t seen anything yet.  Expect the average draft position of all these QB’s to jump 3 to 5 positions ahead and reconsider your expectations of landing any of them in the 3rd round or later.

Marshawn Lynch(RB-BUF): Legal concerns about Lynch’s hit-and-run incident are already ancient history and it’s highly unlikely that the league will come down on him regarding conduct detrimental to the league.  Fantasy owners can breath a sigh of relief and look forward to a monster year from the Bill’s second-year starter.

Muhsin Muhammad (CAR-RB): Muhammad is going back to the place where it all began and recent reports are that he’s the frontrunner for a starting job opposite Steve Smith.  In Muhammad’s 9 years with the Panthers he averaged 861 yards and about 5 TD's per season which is slightly better than his performance over the last three years with the Bears (727 yards & 4 TD's per year).  With the improved health of QB Jake Delhomme and the dominant presence of Steve Smith on the opposite side of the field, Muhammad should have no problem rebounding from three mediocre years in Chicago.

  

Bear Market

Peyton Manning(QB-IND): Surgery on your starting QB’s knee is never “minor.”  An estimated recovery time of 4-6 weeks, and the recent memory of fellow Colt Marvin Harrison missing almost the entire 2007 season to a knee injury, have fantasy owners skeptical about using a high-round draft pick on Manning this year.  With this development, Manning will certainly drop out of the first (and possibly the second) round of this year’s draft.  [If you already drafted Manning in your league, don’t do anything crazy.  Even if he’s not 100% for the start of the season, there are plenty of other options at QB you can use while Manning warms your bench.  Look into the value of starters like Eli Manning, Jay Cutler and Josh McCown for the first few weeks and key in on QB’s facing weak pass-defenses like Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Detroit.]

Matt Forte(RB-CHI)/Adrian Peterson(RB-CHI):  Before the Kevin Jones acquisition most figured that Forte and Peterson would share the workload with the slight edge (and starter tag) going to Forte.  The Jones signing has definitely made Chicago’s backfield committee less predictable.  Fantasy owners should keep a close watch on how this plays out before drafting any Bears RB.

Earnest Graham(RB-TB):  Tampa Bay’s backfield is just as crowded as it was last season, but this year Carnell Williams appears to be on the mend and the club has upgraded from Michael Pittman to Warrick Dunn.  Graham had a breakout 2007 season for the Buc’s in relief of oft-injured starter Williams and figured to be in-line for a starting spot this season.  That hope was shattered as soon as Dunn entered the picture.  Regardless of who wins the starting job this season, it’s obvious that the Buc’s have too much talent not to employ a committee approach, which hurts the value of everyone involved.

 Aaron Rogers(QB-GB): A month ago Rogers was given the reigns of a playoff-caliber Packers team and had obvious #2 QB potential in the fantasy realm.  This week he still looks like the team’s #1 option under center, but fantasy owners should steer clear of Rogers until Bret Favre’s retirement issues are resolved.