Ah, yes, it's finally that time of year again. The Baseball All-Star Break has come and gone and it's time to take an early look at 2008's Average Auction Values (AAVs). The AAVs to the right are based on about a dozen expert auctions we have hosted for different magazines and websites to date. It's not as big a sample as what we'll have in August, but considering the "expert" participants, it gives us as good a ballpark as any for going market prices. We will have a much bigger sample in August as we host more and more auctions.

The values are generally for 12-team, $200 salary cap, non-PPR leagues starting 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 DEF, with 7 bench spots. Values for different expert auctions were adjusted to fit this general league set-up. The following are some observations from the Auctioneer's Podium:

1. As expected, the top 5 players are LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Brian Westbrook, and Joseph Addai, who all range from $73 to $63. This is a bit of a drop-off from the last few years, when the top guy went for $85 to $90, which might speak to people not feeling that comfortable with even this top group. Tomlinson is getting older, Peterson only scored in 6 games last year, the Rams have seen better days, Westbrook (unfair or not) still seems to be a bit of an injury risk (like Peterson and Jackson before him), and Addai never seems to get that many touches. Of course, recent history did provide TD-record breaking years from Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander, and LaDainian Tomlinson.

2. There's a significant $14 drop-off from 5th (Addai) to 6th (Gore), underscoring the 6 hole as the least attractive in snake draft leagues. While there's a $24 difference from #1 to #6, there's a $10 difference from #6 all the way down to #20. That's what I call one long, gradual decline.

3. One interesting thing to note is the disrespect the record-breaking Brady-to-Moss connection seems to get relative to snake draft leagues. Both FantasyFootballCalculator and MockDraftCentral have Brady at #6 and Moss at #7 or #8, but they clock in at 9 and 11 respectively on our list. Over the last several years, auction participants have been conditioned to pay about $40 for the top QB and WR, so an extra $4 or $5 for them might seem right (even if it's technically a discount compared to their ADPs).

4. Players valued from $30 to $40 are the usual suspects of 2nd- and 3rd-round players. One player that has a significant discrepancy between his AAV ranking and his ADP is Darren McFadden ($32, 29th overall vs. 51st in MockDraftCentral and 43rd on FantasyFootballCalculator). His valuation in the expert auctions were all over the board - from the low $20s to the high $30s. McFadden supporters will point to Oakland's surprising 6th-best finish in rushing in 2007 with the likes of LaMont Jordan, Dominic Rhodes, and Justin Fargas toting the rock. With a seemingly much more talented McFadden (to whom Al Davis is paying #4 overall rookie money), they argue the sky's the limit. Detractors will point to Oakland's impending RBBC with Justin Fargas and even Michael Bush (who is over 40 lbs. heavier than McFadden) potentially becoming the goal line back. In a snake draft, even McFadden's biggest fans will likely hold off until the 4th round since his ADP puts him there. In an auction, however, it only takes two people in love with the super-fast rookie to drive his price up, which is exactly what happened in the expert auctions where he went in the mid-to-high 30s.

I call out McFadden here as a reminder of the "It Only Takes Two To Tango" principle in auction-drafting. It can obviously happen with any player, so if you find yourself in a knife fight for that guy you really want, know when to say when.

5. After last year's strong WR performances (and accompanying RB disappointments), it's worth noting that WRs will not come cheaply this year. Last year was more typical as far as WR AAVs go, with six WRs over $30 and none over $40. This year, however, there are 3 at $40 or more and 9 total over $30 - the most since we started publishing AAVs four years ago. Is this an overreaction to last year's shift to the air attack? Or has the rules emphasis on defensive holding in the secondary that started a few years ago finally showing up in the numbers? If we see a repeat of 2007 in 2008, we could see a major shift in the way fantasy players are valued for years to come. (All those RBBCs certainly haven't helped.)

6. One of the biggest falls from grace was Willie Parker, whose $15 AAV was a big surprise. I suppose that's what happens when you take the Steelers drafting Rashard Mendenhall in the 1st round and add that to Parker's breaking his leg last December (although he's supposed to be close to 100% now). It didn't help that his TD total went from 16 in 2006 to 2 in 2007. Willie, of course, would probably point out that Travis Henry (a 2007 first rounder) has completely fallen off the face.

7. As a parting shot, I noticed you can pretty much have the whole Houston backfield for $6 (Ahman Green - $3, Chris Brown - $2, Steve Slaton - $1). If you have a deep enough bench, buying the whole lot is something you might consider, since Alex Gibbs (the guy behind the zone blocking scheme that made the Denver backfield so sexy in fantasy sports) is now working for them. One guy just might break out.

Similarly, if you think a coach really can make a big difference, you might also consider picking up both of Mike Martz's top two WRs for $4 (Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson for $2 each). Just a few cheap lottery tickets for you to consider that might just pay off.

Make sure you look out for updated AAVs from FantasyAuctioneer.com through the next several weeks. Happy auctioning!